May 3, 2024 Inventory Surges and Balanced Markets Emerge in Metro Vancouver Resale

The Metro Vancouver resale market in April was characterized by subdued demand compared to historical averages, likely influenced by factors such as higher mortgage renewals and uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate hikes. Despite this, robust levels of active listings indicate a healthy supply of homes available on the market, and a balanced or buyer-friendly market is emerging. Benchmark prices showed resilience, with persistent upward trends observed across most product types. While signs of recovery and stability are evident, the sentiment remains cautious amidst ongoing economic uncertainties, with buyers and sellers navigating a market characterized by ample supply, tempered demand, and resilient pricing.

Inventory Grows as Demand Slows 

Despite seeing a continued rise in sales over the past four months, the demand for real estate in Greater Vancouver remains down. April witnessed just over 2,800 resales, marking a shortfall of 12.2% compared to the ten-year seasonal sales average for the month.  

While the demand for homes may be subdued, new supply entering the market has seen substantial increases and as of April is at the highest it’s been since the summer of 2020. With over 12,000 listings, supply exceeds the ten-year seasonal average by nearly 17%. While improving supply conditions can be explained by the sluggish sales experienced over the last year, it’s also true that many are feeling the pinch from higher-than-expected mortgage renewals, leading some to list their home. 

Despite moderate sales and an influx of new inventory, benchmark prices remain persistent and continue to rise between 1-2% across most product types. The exception however being condominiums, which have experienced a decrease in pricing, albeit a negligible one at 0.1%. Currently, the benchmark value for all product types is $1,205,800.  

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Prices Edge Upwards Despite Fraser Valley Edging towards a Buyer’s Market 

Although up slightly from the previous month, sales activity in the Fraser Valley continues to lag with just under 1,500 sales recorded, remaining 17.0% below the ten-year seasonal average. Additionally, April 2024 stands out as the third slowest April in terms of sales activity over the past decade. Despite the projected rate cuts coming as soon as Summer 2024, buyers are maintaining a cautious approach and are likely to observe the market without actively engaging until a rate cut is confirmed.   

Meanwhile, active listings remain robust with over 7,000 homes listed, increasing the number of available homes by 18,0% over the last month and 17.0% above the 10-year seasonal average. The number of active listings mixed with lower-than-average demand has led the Fraser Valley to be on the edge of a buyers and balanced market, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 20.1% for the month.  

Despite these figures, the market continues to show signs of recovery in terms of days on the market and benchmark pricing. The average number of days on market has decreased depending on the product anywhere from 1-4 days while benchmark prices continue to edge up 0.5% from the previous month. Benchmark pricing for the Fraser Valley currently sits at $1,013,600 for all product types, with condominiums seeing the largest month-over-month increase at 1.2% 

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Balance Returns to the Victoria Market 

In April 2024, the resale market in Greater Victoria saw an increase in sales activity, with a total of 678 properties sold, marking over a 6% increase from this time last year and over 15% from the previous month. Concurrently, active listings in Greater Victoria have also risen, witnessing an increase of over 47% from the same period last year. The uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate hikes appears to have abated among purchasers in the Victoria market, prompting many to gradually reengage with the market. This renewed activity, coupled with a healthy supply of inventory not witnessed since Summer of 2019, has created a much friendlier market for both buyers and sellers to navigate. Meanwhile, benchmark pricing continues to inch upwards month-over-month and currently sits at $1,284,600 for single family homes and $567,800 for condominiums. 

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